ForecastWatch February Wrap-up and News

February Wrap-Up

Most Accurate Weather App Identified (Sort-of)

As weather apps on mobile devices become more and more popular, the public is quick to make judgments on which apps are and are not accurate. That is of course, in their own opinion, and based on their interpretation of what the app is saying. However, sometimes those interpretations are a misunderstanding of what the app creators and forecasters are trying to portray, creating a false expectation.

Nonetheless, the University of Reading’s Department of Meteorology was commissioned to identify which weather apps are actually the most accurate.

Groundhog Day 2025 Predictions

As the annual tradition continues, weather-predicting rodents from all across North America emerged from their sleep and offered weather forecasts for either an early spring or six more weeks of winter. There are actually more than 80 weather-forecasting prognosticators, but not all of them record a prediction every year.

On February 2, 2025, 43 groundhogs predicted an early spring and 33 predicted six more weeks of winter. Of course, rodents are not meteorologists, but it’s always fun to see their predictions and find out if they are correct. One has been right the last 15 years in a row!

Subscribe to the ClimateWatch newsletter!

One year ago, our parent company Intellovations LLC launched a newsletter called ClimateWatch!

The goal is to bring you the week's most pressing climate issues, impacts, trends and forecasts, groundbreaking innovations, and actionable tips in our weekly newsletter dedicated to keeping you up-to-date on climate information. In the future, the plan is to include in-depth analyses from our experts in the newsletter. 

Check out the newsletters from February:

• Wildfire Smoke Increases Risk for Dementia

• Satellites - Unlikely Heroes in the Climate Crisis

• Climate Change Turns Valentine's Day Bitter

• Melting Glaciers Caused 2cm of Sea Level Rise This Century

ORBIT Makes Long-term Forecasting More Reliable

Researchers at the Department of Energy are using the world’s fastest supercomputer to bring up-to-the-minute, pinpoint weather forecasts weeks in advance to the general public’s finger tips. The project is called ORBIT, which stands for Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability.

By training the world’s largest AI model for weather prediction, hyperlocal and hyperaccurate forecasts are now within reach. The model uses 113 billion parameters to predict weather up to 30 days in advance. For short term forecasts (days or weeks in advance), the model has seen accuracy rates as high as 95%. For long-term forecasts (more than two weeks in advance), it still achieves a 60-80% accuracy rate.

NASA Uses Drones to Aid in Fire Response

A team of researchers from NASA and their partners are testing new drone technology that could be used for localized forecasting. The team equipped NASA’s Alta X quadcopter with wind sensors, aiming to provide precise and sustainable micrometeorological data to help predict wildfire behavior.

With wildfires becoming more common, and wind being a major contributor to the spread of fires, having localized, real-time wind data could potentially help predict fire growth and spread, alert the public sooner, and lessen fire fatalities.

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