ForecastWatch October Wrap-up and News

A look back at ForecastWatch reports and blog posts, and ClimateWatch newsletters over the last month.

October 30, 2025

October Wrap-Up

Top Ten Places to Live in the U.S. Based on Overall Average Accuracy

In our recently released report, we analyzed 793 locations in the United States to identify the cities with the highest overall average accuracy. The overall average accuracy averages forecast and persistence accuracy for high temperatures and low temperatures within three Fahrenheit degrees of the actual observed temperatures, as well as precipitation accuracy.

The most accurate combination of forecasts and persistence were found in Hawaii and California, with each having five locations ranked in the top ten with accuracies over 80%. Elsewhere, the Southwest United States, including the majority of California, southern Nevada, southwest Arizona, far southern Texas, and central and southern Florida saw overall accuracies of 70% or greater.

For more detailed information and to download our full report, click the Continue Reading button below.

Vaisala’s Xweather is Transforming Hail Forecasting Through Lightning Intelligence

Vaisala Xweather is combining traditional radar observations with its proprietary lightning data to provide more precise hail alerts up to 60 minutes in advance while updating every two minutes. Vaisala, a global leader in measurement instruments and intelligence for climate action, just announced the launch of its advanced hail forecast alerts within its Xweather Protect severe weather monitoring platform.

Vaisala’s new Xweather Protect alert API integration will enable solar farm operators to automate the process of moving solar panels to protective stow positions when hail is imminent, providing critical asset protection measures that can prevent catastrophic damage to solar installations.

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AI Forecast Model Provides Energy Traders Hourly Forecasts 7 Months in Advance

A tech firm called Amperon Holdings Inc. is leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to create a range of hourly demand up to seven months in advance that will be updated upon the daily release of global weather models created by Europe’s biggest forecasting center.

The accuracy of these new projections will depend on the underlying weather forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), providing forecast conditions every six hours out to seven months. These weather forecasts will be combined with machine learning to come up with hourly demand curves with the help of historical data and solar and wind conditions.

Experimental NOAA Tool Predicts Hourly Wildfire Hazards

In many parts of the United States, wildfires have become a year-round occurrence rather than a seasonal threat. In response to the escalating risk to communities, air quality, and the environment, scientists at NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory have created the Hourly Wildfire Potential Index (HWP).

HWP is an experimental application of NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast model and the next-generation Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) that provides an assessment of wildfire potential updated every hour based on model-predicted weather conditions.

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Check out the newsletters from October:

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