ForecastWatch July Wrap-up and News

July Wrap-Up

Tornado Alley Has Shifted East

Until about five years ago, Tornado Alley consisted of a bull’s eye of tornado activity in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. But in years since, that hot spot of tornado activity has shifted east, into parts of the Deep South and the Tennessee Valley. This eastward shift was noticed very early on by tornado expert Dr. Victor Gensini who published his study findings in the Journal of Climate and Atmospheric Science in 2018. In a recent study, researchers confirmed the eastward shift has taken place and is continuing. Places like eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas saw a 40% reduction in tornadoes, while southern Mississippi saw a 25% increase in tornadoes.

Enhancing Weather Forecasting Using Drones

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) recently announced a new 2 year research partnership with GrandSky Airfield Operations in North Dakota. The partnership will use drones and other UAV assets to aid in weather forecasting. NOAA says the key to improving the skill of NWS forecasts and warnings is to have additional observations in the atmospheric boundary layer, which the drones will allow them to collect. The project will use a Swiss-based Meteodrone, which is used to fill gaps between space-based satellites, weather planes and balloons, and ground-based weather observations in real time.

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A few months ago, our parent company Intellovations LLC launched a newsletter called ClimateWatch!

The goal is to bring you the week's most pressing climate issues, impacts, trends and forecasts, groundbreaking innovations, and actionable tips in our weekly newsletter dedicated to keeping you up-to-date on climate information. In the future, the plan is to include in-depth analyses from our experts in the newsletter. 

Check out the newsletters from July:

• Sea Level Rise May Be Worse than Projected

• Fireworks Contribute to Carbon Footprint

• Plant Hardiness Zones Shift Due to Climate Change

• New Algorithm Could Revolutionize IPCC Climate Forecasts

• Hottest Day Ever Recorded on Earth

White House Investing $36.6 Million to Improve Weather Forecasting

At the end of May, the White House announced that it will be investing $36.6 million in programs aimed at improving weather forecasting and tsunami warning systems. Not only will these efforts benefit the United States, but it will also benefit Canada and other countries around the world. $6.6 million of the funding will go toward the creation of a Consortium for Advanced Data Assimilation Research and Education (CADRE), which will consist of six universities that include top-rated meteorology programs at the University of Oklahoma and Pennsylvania State University. The remaining $30 million will be used to upgrade the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) Ocean Observing System.

The Washington Post Analyzed National Weather Service Forecast Accuracy

The National Weather Service (NWS) shared a year’s worth of forecast accuracy data with The Washington Post, who then analyzed the data. This is the first time the government has shared this data publicly, so let’s see how they did. When looking at the National Weather Service’s daily high temperature forecasts, a forecast was deemed accurate when it was within 3 degrees Fahrenheit of the actual observed high temperature. Keep in mind that The Washington Post analysis only looked at NWS forecast accuracy, which is only one of many weather forecast providers. At ForecastWatch, we provide a far more comprehensive look at forecasts from more than two dozen forecast providers. Although the NWS does provide valuable services and data, they are often not the most accurate forecast provider compared to commercial providers.

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