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ForecastWatch September Wrap-up and News
A look back at ForecastWatch blog posts and ClimateWatch newsletters over the last month. We also just released a new report!
September Wrap-Up
A look back at ForecastWatch blog posts and ClimateWatch newsletters over the last month. We also just released a new report!
NEW REPORT: Best Places to Live or Work in the United States 2024 Edition
If dependability in weather forecasts is essential to your business, or your activities rely on weather forecasts, this report is for you! Our Best Places reports use a combination of forecast accuracy from various weather providers and an assumption that the current weather will continue over the next several days to determine locations where the weather is most and least predictable in the short term.
Our U.S. report analyzes 832 locations and ranks them from most to least predictable. Which locations topped the chart? Which locations missed the mark? Find out in our blog, or download the full report for a more in-depth analysis!
Kelvin Wave Research May Lead to Advanced Hurricane Forecasting
A recent study led by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) used Kelvin waves to forecast active hurricane periods. The research showed that twice as many hurricanes form two days after the passing of large-scale atmospheric waves than in the days before.
Knowing this information, forecasters and emergency managers may be able to better anticipate clusters of hurricanes days to weeks in advance, helping to save lives and property.
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Check out the newsletters from September:
What Happened to Tropical Cyclone Activity?
In nearly unanimous agreement, experts thought this year’s hurricane season would be one for the record books. Hurricane activity started with a bang with Category 5 Hurricane Beryl in late June and early July. Hurricanes Debby and Ernesto developed in early and mid August, but the tropics have since been unusually quiet over the last month, leaving meteorologists and the publix perplexed.
Experts say there has not been such a long stretch without hurricane formations between August and September since 1968, but they say there are a few reasons as to why it has occurred.
Worst Places to Live if You Need to Know What the Weather Will Be Like Tomorrow
When taking a look at the world as a whole, we analyzed high temperatures, low temperatures, and precipitation for 1,944 locations. Combined accuracy of less than 55% was found along the southern Chile coast, most of Canada (outside the coasts), the extreme Northern Plains of the U.S., western Greenland, much of Siberia, extreme northwest China, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. These least accurate combinations of forecasts and persistence were generally in polar and inland locations.
Locations on the east side of large continents such as the United States and Eurasia saw less accuracy than the west side of the same continents, because they are less exposed to the moderating effects of the oceans to the west, with jet streams and weather systems largely flowing west to east outside of the tropics. This is also seen to a lesser extent in the Southern Hemisphere with South America and Australia, smaller continents with less west to east extent.
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