September Wrap-Up

Improvements in Modeling and Forecasting of Extreme Weather

From extreme heat waves, wildfires, and rainfall, we’ve seen a lot of this extreme weather over the past several years throughout the world. With 2023 already having a 50% chance of becoming the hottest year on record, and 2024 potentially being even warmer due largely to El Niño, these events will very likely only continue to impact most people globally.

Now forecasters and atmospheric modelers are attempting to understand and forecast these events with new methods and data in an attempt to keep pace with their seemingly never-ending increase in frequency.

Even Slight Inaccuracies in Temperature Forecasts Affect Deaths

Can a weather forecast accuracy improvement of only 1 Celsius degree during heat waves actually save lives?

According to research by Jeffrey Shrader, Laura Bakkensen, and Derek Lemoine, researchers at Columbia University and the University of Arizona, the answer is yes. They studied 12 years of weather forecasts and mortality data at the county level for the United States and discovered a relationship between an increased number of deaths and forecasts off by as little as 1 Celsius degree (1.8 Fahrenheit degrees) during both summer heat waves and winter cold periods.

Lack of Weather Data and Forecasting in Africa a Major Focus of the First Africa Climate Summit

Most of the more developed countries in the world, particularly in North America, Europe, Australia, and eastern Asia, have fairly accurate weather forecasts, especially in the short term. This is due largely to technological advances and the availability of weather services to use that technology to make and distribute these forecasts to users.

However, most of the less developed countries, especially in Africa, don’t have access to the same quality and accuracy of weather forecasts. With Africa one of the least prepared areas in the world for climate change, this often leads to increased damages and fatalities.

New Report Coming Soon!

Our Best Places reports are unique in that they use a combination of forecast accuracy from various weather providers and an assumption that the current weather will continue over the next several days to determine locations where the weather is most and least predictable in the short term.

Stay tuned for the release of our new Best Places to Live in the United States If You Need to Know What the Weather Will Be Like Tomorrow 2023 report in the near future!

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